19S(FARAJI), US/Category 1, rapid intensification likely faster than forecast for the next 12/24hours, 06/21utc update


19S(FARAJI). 06/20UTC. 8H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE AS IT BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT IF NECESSARY.


19S(FARAJI). 06/20UTC. 8H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE AS IT  BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT IF NECESSARY.
19S(FARAJI). 06/20UTC. 8H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE AS IT BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT IF NECESSARY.

 

06/1830UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND INVEST 91P WHICH HAS RECENTLY MOVED OVER-LAND. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 18S AT 06/1420UTC.
06/1830UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND INVEST 91P WHICH HAS RECENTLY MOVED OVER-LAND. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 18S AT 06/1420UTC.
2021 FEB 06 21UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 4
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 06, 2021:
Location: 14.7°S 79.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 06/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 1145 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INVEST #91P   #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 06, 2021:
Location: 16.3°S 136.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW. HAS MOVED OVER-LAND.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

19S(FARAJI) WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 06/21UTC.THE SYSTEM IS IN A  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEAS, ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW  ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY  COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL  RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY EASTWARD. AFTER 48H, A  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND  GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK  OF 110KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 48H. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AS  THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND WIND SHEAR BECOMES MODERATE (15-25 KTS), AND  BY 120H, WILL BE REDUCED TO 70KNOTS.
19S(FARAJI) WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 06/21UTC.THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEAS, ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY EASTWARD. AFTER 48H, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 48H. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND WIND SHEAR BECOMES MODERATE (15-25 KTS), AND BY 120H, WILL BE REDUCED TO 70KNOTS.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD  AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT  OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS  IN THE POST-QUASI STATONARY PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION, LEND AN  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QUASI STATONARY PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

19S(FARAJI). 06/1946UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE.
19S(FARAJI). 06/1946UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE.

19S(FARAJI). 06/21UTC. SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 3HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
19S(FARAJI). 06/21UTC. SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 3HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

19S(FARAJI). 06/1639UTC ASCAT-C.
19S(FARAJI). 06/1639UTC ASCAT-C.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 7 Février 2021 à 02:00