16S(GABEKILE): reduced to a 35knots TC, 93P & 96P updates at 18/06UTC



TC 16S: ANIMATION. 0630UTC.

CIRA/US
CIRA/US
TC 16S(GABEKILE)  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 18, 2020:
Location: 20.6°S 75.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt  ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

TPXS11 PGTW 180602
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 20.52S
D. 75.81E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T1.5/2.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. GREATER THAN 100NM SHEAR
YIELDS DT OF UNCLASS. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/0005Z  20.50S  75.70E  SSMS
 MARTIN
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E.
18FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
827 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A 180005Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
NOTCH FEATURE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON  
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES
SUPPORTED BY A 171629Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTING A REGION OF
30-34 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THESE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CREATE AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, TC 16S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, LOCATED IN A COL
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WEST. AS
THE STR PATTERN SHIFTS, TC 16S WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THE NEAR-TERM, WARM SST AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE HIGH VWS AND SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER (LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS) SST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. WITHIN THE COL, THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSIT
SOUTHWEST, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, PLACING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN


INVEST 93P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 18, 2020:

Location: 21.2°S 164.6°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
TPPS10 PGTW 180609
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (SE OF AMERICAN SAMOA)
B. 18/0540Z
C. 21.14S
D. 164.58W
E. FIVE/GOES17
F. ST1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. HEBERT POTEAT
METHOD YIELDS A ST OF 1.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.1S 167.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 165.9W, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHEARLINE WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE SHEARLINE. AN 180409Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL BAND OF
FRAGMENTED MIDLEVEL CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 172054Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS REVEALS THE AREA AS TIGHT, EXTENSIVE TROUGHING WITH STRONGER
WINDS DISPLACED TO THE EAST. 96P IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (35 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLING (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS, THOUGH ULTIMATELY
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.



INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 18, 2020:

Location: 11.6°S 179.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 176.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 179.2W, APPROXIMATELY
522 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH AN 180418Z SSMIS F-16
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
SURFACE CONFLUENCE WITH A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 96P IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.
INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A LIKELY REGION FOR ONE OF THOSE
CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

 

TC 16S: WARNING 7 AT 00UTC + 06UTC POSITION INDICATED


TC 16S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 93P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96P: TRACK GUIDANCE


TC 16S: 18/06UTC : SHEARED TC.

FY2H. AB/PH.
FY2H. AB/PH.


18/0545UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 18 Février 2020 à 11:56