2019 FEB 20 1420UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201111Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 (55/65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (26C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO
EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM
IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 15P WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING ENTRAINMENT
OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
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TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
WARNING 35/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 35 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.9°S 160.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS: Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 35 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.9°S 160.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201111Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 (55/65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (26C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO
EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM
IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 15P WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING ENTRAINMENT
OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
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