WARNING 15/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 16.1°S 115.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE. A 081055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE
THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MIDGET WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO
4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH DECREASING
VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO
WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A
PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 16.1°S 115.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE. A 081055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE
THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MIDGET WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO
4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH DECREASING
VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO
WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A
PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 15/JTWC
1537UTC
1430UTC
12UTC
1056UTC
