15UTC: OMA(15P): moving southwest and intensifying, approaching the Belep islands


Warning 27/JTWC


2019 FEB 18 1435UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
My Remarks: UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates suggests environment now favorable. Intensification might be more pronounced than indicated with the current warning( peak at 60knots in 24H). High confidence in the forecast track over 48H.

TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 50knots TC.
WARNING 27/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 27 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 18, 2019:
Location: 18.5°S 163.1°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AS
RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A BROAD AND RAGGED, BUT DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE TC REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 181044Z AMSU IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 181014Z 25KM
RESOLUTION PARTIAL PASS THAT SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS
PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT
OF A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND IS
NOW TRACKING OVER 26-27 CELSIUS SSTS. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC
15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE
NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180
DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau










Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Février 2019 à 18:47