15UTC: JOANINHA(22S) expected to intensify steadily next 48/72h and slowly approach Rodrigues island


Warning 7/JTWC


WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC


1431UTC
1431UTC

 

WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 23, 2019:

Location: 16.7°S 61.7°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 856 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CYCLING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED
BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM FMEE, FIMP, PGTW.
A 230943Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 65 KTS, WHILE A 231215Z AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS T3.6 (57 KTS), MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PGTW ESTIMATE. TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU
72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY BOTH IN NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD AND ALONG-TRACK MOTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1415UTC
1415UTC

1305UTC
1305UTC

0946UTC
0946UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Mars 2019 à 19:23