15UTC: Cyclone OMA(15P) Category 1 US may intensify to Category 2 within 12hours

2019 FEB 19 1410UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 75knots TC, CAT1 US. REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191132Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5
TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL,
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
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