13UTC: South Indian: 95S is likely to develop next several days to the northwest of Western Australia


The area is upgraded to Medium by the JTWC


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
INVEST 95S
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:

Location: 13.9°S 122.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 181300
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 122.8E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181033Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS),
VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES
FURTHER, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
AROUND 210000Z. THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING, AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE TURN TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS
LEARMONTH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS MEDIUM.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Mars 2019 à 19:07