12S(ELOISE) intensifying steadily next 36hours and approaching Antalaha area, 18/09utc update


WARNING 3. FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY 36H AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 48H, AND INTENSITY WILL FALL BELOW 35KNOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY 72H. AFTER 72H, 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.


12S(ELOISE). WARNING 3. FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN  FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE  SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY  INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY 36H AS IT APPROACHES THE  NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER  MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 48H, AND INTENSITY WILL FALL BELOW 35KNOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS  TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY 72H. AFTER 72H, 12S IS FORECAST TO  RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
12S(ELOISE). WARNING 3. FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY 36H AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 48H, AND INTENSITY WILL FALL BELOW 35KNOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY 72H. AFTER 72H, 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
2021 JAN 18 0830UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
WARNING 3
Location: 13.7°S 56.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

18/06UTC. SATELLITE  IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER  (LLCC) OBSCURED UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP  CONVECTION.
18/06UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS  THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING  WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND  DISPLACED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.

NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 240/315KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS  FROM 96H TO 120H. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC  FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 240/315KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 96H TO 120H. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Janvier 2021 à 13:00