WARNING 11. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0(65 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12H BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT LANDFALL NEAR 18H. REGARDLESS OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER 18H. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H.
2021 JAN 22 0855UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 11
Location: 18.8°S 38.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 11
Location: 18.8°S 38.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
LANDFALL FORECAST LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA SHORTLY BEFORE 23/06UTC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
22/0619UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A BANDING EYE PATTERN.
22/0646UTC. WESTERN-QUADRANT RAIN BANDS ARE AFFECTING MOZAMBIQUE.
22/0406UTC. TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
22/07UTC. METEOSAT DEPICTS APPARENT MUCH STRONGER SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 28KM THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
22/0530UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 12S AND TC 13S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 22/03UTC ON TC 14S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PORVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
22/00UTC
