12S(ELOISE) has now reached Cyclone Category 1 US, forecast to intensify while bearing down on Beira/MOZ, 22/09utc update


WARNING 11. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0(65 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12H BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT LANDFALL NEAR 18H. REGARDLESS OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER 18H. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H.


WARNING 11. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS  ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0(65  KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH  SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS  FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.  TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12H BUT  COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT LANDFALL NEAR 18H. REGARDLESS  OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND  SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER 18H. TC 12S  IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H.
WARNING 11. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0(65 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12H BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT LANDFALL NEAR 18H. REGARDLESS OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER 18H. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H.
2021 JAN 22 0855UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 11
Location: 18.8°S 38.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

LANDFALL FORECAST LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA SHORTLY BEFORE 23/06UTC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
LANDFALL FORECAST LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA SHORTLY BEFORE 23/06UTC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


22/0619UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A BANDING EYE PATTERN.
22/0619UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A BANDING EYE PATTERN.

22/0646UTC. WESTERN-QUADRANT RAIN BANDS ARE AFFECTING MOZAMBIQUE.
22/0646UTC. WESTERN-QUADRANT RAIN BANDS ARE AFFECTING MOZAMBIQUE.


22/0406UTC. TIGHTLY-CURVED  BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
22/0406UTC. TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE

22/07UTC. METEOSAT DEPICTS APPARENT MUCH STRONGER SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH  SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
22/07UTC. METEOSAT DEPICTS APPARENT MUCH STRONGER SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL  AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 28KM THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, THE  MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM  RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 28KM THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS.

22/0530UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 12S AND TC 13S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 22/03UTC ON TC 14S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PORVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
22/0530UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 12S AND TC 13S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 22/03UTC ON TC 14S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PORVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.

22/00UTC
22/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 22 Janvier 2021 à 13:40