12S(ELOISE): Final Warning. Made landfall 15km Southeast of Nova Sofala/MOZ with estimated 205km/h gusts


WARNING 13/FINAL. TC 12S(ELOISE) MADE LANDFALL APPRX 15KM SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SOFALA OR 30KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BEIRA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KNOTS GUSTING TO 110KNOTS, US/CATEGORY 2.


WARNING 13. TC 12S(ELOISE) MADE LANDFALL APPRX 15KM SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SOFALA OR 30KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BEIRA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KNOTS GUSTING TO 110KNOTS, US/CATEGORY 2.
WARNING 13. TC 12S(ELOISE) MADE LANDFALL APPRX 15KM SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SOFALA OR 30KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BEIRA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KNOTS GUSTING TO 110KNOTS, US/CATEGORY 2.
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 23, 2021:
WARNING 13/FINAL
Location: 20.4°S 34.0°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 165km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING OVER-LAND
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
JMV FILE
1221011218 126S 826E  25
1221011300 127S 813E  20
1221011306 128S 804E  20
1221011312 131S 789E  20
1221011318 135S 777E  20
1221011400 136S 764E  25
1221011406 133S 751E  25
1221011412 122S 735E  25
1221011418 116S 723E  20
1221011500 112S 715E  20
1221011506 115S 702E  20
1221011512 118S 687E  25
1221011518 120S 676E  25
1221011600 122S 667E  30
1221011606 124S 660E  30
1221011612 125S 652E  30
1221011618 125S 644E  30
1221011700 126S 633E  30
1221011706 126S 621E  35
1221011712 130S 612E  35
1221011718 132S 596E  40
1221011800 135S 581E  45
1221011806 137S 566E  45
1221011812 139S 550E  50
1221011818 141S 530E  50
1221011900 143S 520E  45
1221011906 145S 517E  50
1221011912 152S 510E  50
1221011918 153S 501E  45
1221012000 155S 496E  40
1221012006 156S 480E  35
1221012012 153S 465E  35
1221012018 157S 450E  35
1221012100 162S 440E  40
1221012106 167S 428E  40
1221012112 172S 419E  45
1221012118 178S 407E  55
1221012200 184S 395E  65
1221012206 188S 383E  75
1221012212 192S 368E  75
1221012218 195S 359E  75
1221012300 201S 349E  90
1221012306 204S 340E  75
1221012306 204S 340E  75
1221012306 204S 340E  75
NNNN

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

TC 12S HAS HAD A ZONAL TRACK. IT FINALLY REACHED HURRICANE/TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL WHILE APPROACHING MOZAMBIQUE.
TC 12S HAS HAD A ZONAL TRACK. IT FINALLY REACHED HURRICANE/TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL WHILE APPROACHING MOZAMBIQUE.

23/0353UTC. THE MID-LEVEL EYE REMAINED WELL DEFINED EVEN AFTER LANDFALL.
23/0353UTC. THE MID-LEVEL EYE REMAINED WELL DEFINED EVEN AFTER LANDFALL.

23/0314UTC. THE CYCLONE'S CORE REMAINED COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED JUST AFTER LANDFALL BUT WILL RAPIDLY UNRAVEL NEXT 24/48H.
23/0314UTC. THE CYCLONE'S CORE REMAINED COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED JUST AFTER LANDFALL BUT WILL RAPIDLY UNRAVEL NEXT 24/48H.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD  WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 60 KM. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE  IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL  CONSENSUS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 60 KM. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

23/0530UTC. JTWC HAS ISSUED THE FINAL WARNING ON TC 12S(ELOISE) AND IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH OF THEM. SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED FOR THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 14S.
23/0530UTC. JTWC HAS ISSUED THE FINAL WARNING ON TC 12S(ELOISE) AND IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH OF THEM. SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED FOR THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 14S.

23/00UTC
23/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Janvier 2021 à 13:50