11P(KIMI) is no longer forecast to intensify and make landfall, 18/09utc update


THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN.WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK
CHANGE BY 36H. AFTER 36H, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
(WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY 72H.


11P(KIMI). WARNING 6.THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD  WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN.WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK  CHANGE BY 36H. AFTER 36H, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW  (WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND  STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY 72H.
11P(KIMI). WARNING 6.THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN.WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE BY 36H. AFTER 36H, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW (WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY 72H.
2021 JAN 18 0945UTC
TC #11P #KIM #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 18, 2021:
WARNING 6
Location: 17.8°S 147.1°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

18/0930UTC.  ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP  CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR, FORTUNATELY,  REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED  LLCC.
18/0930UTC. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR, FORTUNATELY, REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LLCC.

NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER)  BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK  CHANGE BY 36H.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER) BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE BY 36H.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Janvier 2021 à 14:10