10S(DIANE) & 11S(ESAMI) interaction: separation: 950km. 12P update



TC 10S(DIANE): WARNING 4.

TC 10S(DIANE) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 26, 2020:
Location: 25.0°S 68.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 68.8E.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DIANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
676 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
260214Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
MINIMAL CURVED BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 260342Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KTS, SHOWING SWATHS OF 40-44 KT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5 BY PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES BASED ON THE DIRECT ASCAT PASS. TC 10S
IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS EXPERIENCING HIGH (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SHEAR EFFECT IS SLIGHTLY MITIGATED AS THE SHEAR
DIRECTION AND STORM MOTION ARE IN PHASE. TC 10S IS TRANSITING
THROUGH A REGION OF MARGINAL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) WITH AN ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE
ALLOWED TC 10S TO MAINTAIN ITS RELATIVELY WELL-FORMED STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THAT, TC 10S WILL SLOW AND
GRADUALLY TURN TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 48 AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (>45 KTS)
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24-25 CELSIUS). THUS, TC 10S
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING AROUND
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
105 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 48. THUS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TC 12P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 26, 2020:
Location: 22.0°S 166.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 166.7W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260530Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS, A SMAP
ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS AND THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TC 12P IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 12P HAS MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED
TO THE EAST. AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, IT WILL
EXPERIENCE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRACK OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 12P
TO DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

TC 11S(ESAMI) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 26, 2020:
Location: 27.9°S 77.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb 
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 77.6E.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 260401Z GMI 36 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE MSI ALONG WITH EXTRAPOLATIONS OF
A PARTIAL 260342Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 260342Z ASCAT
DEPICTED 35-40 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC,
PLACING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS. TC 11S IS
IN AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST), AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. NOTABLY, THE OUTFLOW OF TC 10S HAS
BEEN IMPACTING TC 11S, INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TC 11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 11S WILL TRANSIT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, WEAKENING AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SST
COOL BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AT TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO CURVE
SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 11S WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC 10S APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

TC 12P: WARNING 4.


TC 11S(ESAMI): WARNING 4.


TC 10S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 12P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 11S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 10S: ASCAT AT 01/26 0343UTC


Meteosat at 01/26 09UTC. TC 10S & TC 11S.

WEATHER US
WEATHER US

01/26 0515UTC


01/26 00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 26 Janvier 2020 à 13:37