2019 FEB 20 0855UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 70knots TC, CAT1 US.
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 70knots TC, CAT1 US.
WARNING 34/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 34 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.5°S 161.0°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE (ABOUT 40 TO 45NM
DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE. A 200537Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77
KNOTS). TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO
27C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 34 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 21.5°S 161.0°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE (ABOUT 40 TO 45NM
DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE. A 200537Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77
KNOTS). TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO
27C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN
