09UTC: South Indian: 96S high chances of development next 24hours


The area is now HIGH for the next 24hours/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Actualite-meteo_r1.html

INVEST 96S
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 01, 2019:

Location: 10.2°S 76.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

WTXS21 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 77.2E TO 15.5S 72.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 76.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 80.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010531Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING CONVECTIVE BANDING
PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER.
A 010359Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, BUT 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW
INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020900Z.//
NNNN




 



HWRF AT 00Z: 118KT AT + 96H
HWRF AT 00Z: 118KT AT + 96H

GFS AT 00Z: 104KT AT + 114H
GFS AT 00Z: 104KT AT + 114H

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00UTC

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00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 1 Mars 2019 à 13:21