09UTC: JOANINHA(22S) category 1 US, intensifying to category 3 within 36h and slowly heading for Rodrigues island


Warning 10/JTWC


WARNING 10/JTWC
WARNING 10/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 24, 2019:

Location: 16.9°S 61.6°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 mb
CATEGORY 1 US  INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. A
240454Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-
29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE, BETWEEN A RANGE
OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5 (77
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KTS), ALTHOUGH THE 240417Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS
LOWER, AT 69 KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING,
REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 120. TC 22S HAS BACKTRACKED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC
22S TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE CURRENT QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND AND WEST OF
CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
 



0426UTC
0426UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 24 Mars 2019 à 14:09