05S(CALVINIA) now at Typhoon intensity, moving away from the Mascarenes



TC 05S: CLICK TO ANIMATE.

TC 05S(CALVINIA)  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 31, 2019:
Location: 22.5°S 58.4°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 58.7E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS INDICATED BY FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE CENTER THAT HAS MOMENTARILY PRODUCED AN EYE. THE EYE HAS
SINCE BECOME CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A FORWARD SLANT
CAUSED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) NORTHWESTERLY VWS.
SSTS IN THE AREA HAVE COOLED TO 26C. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL NOW GRADUALLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, IT WILL ENTER THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 48,
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
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TC 05S: WARNING 5


 

TC 05S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 31 Décembre 2019 à 19:07