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05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05B(SITRANG). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED AT 23/1740UTC ON THE REMNANTS OF 25W.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05B(SITRANG). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED AT 23/1740UTC ON THE REMNANTS OF 25W.
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc
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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 05B(SITRANG). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 24/06UTC. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 24/09UTC.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS A LARGE 500-600NM DIAMETER SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE REGION OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL INDIA AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR 20N 94E. WINDS WITHIN THIS WEDGE OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RANGE FROM 50-70 KNOTS, WHICH IS FUELING THE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIA AND BANGLADESH. A 240034Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, SHALLOW LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER BANGLADESH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 240413Z ASCAT-B IMAGE AND REFLECT EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS A LARGE 500-600NM DIAMETER SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE REGION OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL INDIA AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR 20N 94E. WINDS WITHIN THIS WEDGE OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RANGE FROM 50-70 KNOTS, WHICH IS FUELING THE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIA AND BANGLADESH. A 240034Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, SHALLOW LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER BANGLADESH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 240413Z ASCAT-B IMAGE AND REFLECT EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES.
IO, 05, 2022102118,132N,  933E,  25, 1006, TD
IO, 05, 2022102200,135N,  924E,  25, 1006, TD
IO, 05, 2022102206,141N,  914E,  25, 1006, TD
IO, 05, 2022102212,146N,  902E,  25, 1005, TD
IO, 05, 2022102218,148N,  891E,  30, 1002, TD
IO, 05, 2022102300,150N,  885E,  30, 1000, TD
IO, 05, 2022102306,153N,  882E,  30, 1000, TD
IO, 05, 2022102312,158N,  884E,  35,  998, TS
IO, 05, 2022102318,167N,  888E,  35,  998, TS
IO, 05, 2022102400,180N,  892E,  35,  997, TS
IO, 05, 2022102406,193N,  897E,  40,  999, TS 
               
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05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc


FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR. AFTER TAU 12, INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER BANGLADESH BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE LARGE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS BANGLADESH, INCLUDING THE EASTERN REGION NEAR CHITTAGONG AND COX'S BAZAR.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR. AFTER TAU 12, INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER BANGLADESH BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE LARGE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS BANGLADESH, INCLUDING THE EASTERN REGION NEAR CHITTAGONG AND COX'S BAZAR.

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 25-55NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12 TO TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE 240000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF BANGLADESH. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 231800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES AN 80-100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM-STRENGTH (50-63 KNOTS) SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PEAKS AT 40 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ASCAT-B DATA AND THE 12-HOUR WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LANDFALL.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 25-55NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12 TO TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE 240000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF BANGLADESH. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 231800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES AN 80-100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM-STRENGTH (50-63 KNOTS) SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PEAKS AT 40 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ASCAT-B DATA AND THE 12-HOUR WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LANDFALL.
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HWRF AT 24/00UTC: 44KT AT +12H


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 93W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 24/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 24/06UTC.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH DISPLACED AND FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 240052Z ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VWS (5-10KTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WEAK EASTERN OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH DISPLACED AND FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 240052Z ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VWS (5-10KTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WEAK EASTERN OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
WP, 93, 2022102318,110N, 1357E,  15, 1005, DB
WP, 93, 2022102400,113N, 1353E,  15, 1004, DB
WP, 93, 2022102406,116N, 1349E,  15, 1004, DB

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC: OVER-LAND 19E(ROSLYN). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 24/00UTC.

05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc
EP, 19, 2022101700,94N,   945W,  15,    0, DB
EP, 19, 2022101706,97N,   956W,  15,    0, DB
EP, 19, 2022101712,103N,  965W,  15,    0, DB
EP, 19, 2022101718,108N,  970W,  15,    0, DB
EP, 19, 2022101800,114N,  974W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101806,121N,  978W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101812,129N,  982W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101818,139N,  984W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101900,143N,  989W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101906,147N,  996W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101912,149N, 1002W,  25, 1008, DB
EP, 19, 2022101918,150N, 1006W,  25, 1008, LO
EP, 19, 2022102000,151N, 1010W,  30, 1007, TD
EP, 19, 2022102006,151N, 1013W,  30, 1007, TD
EP, 19, 2022102012,151N, 1017W,  35, 1006, TS
EP, 19, 2022102018,153N, 1024W,  40, 1005, TS
EP, 19, 2022102100,156N, 1030W,  45, 1001, TS
EP, 19, 2022102106,159N, 1035W,  55,  998, TS
EP, 19, 2022102112,161N, 1041W,  55,  997, TS
EP, 19, 2022102118,163N, 1048W,  60,  992, TS
EP, 19, 2022102200,166N, 1053W,  75,  982, HU
EP, 19, 2022102206,169N, 1058W, 100,  963, HU
EP, 19, 2022102212,176N, 1062W, 110,  955, HU
EP, 19, 2022102218,184N, 1066W, 115,  955, HU
EP, 19, 2022102300,195N, 1067W, 115,  954, HU
EP, 19, 2022102306,205N, 1064W, 110,  958, HU
EP, 19, 2022102312,221N, 1055W, 105,  960, HU
EP, 19, 2022102318,238N, 1044W,  60,  988, TS
EP, 19, 2022102400,252N, 1020W,  30, 1005, TD

WARNING 17/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 24/04UTC.



ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 115KT: CAT 4 US.

05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc


NORTH ATLANTIC: INVEST 94L. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 24/00UTC.

05B(SITRANG)intensifying,forecast landfall west of Chittagong//Invest 93W//19E(ROSLYN)peaked at CAT 4,made landfall//Invest 94L//2409utc
AL, 94, 2022102018,325N,  370W,  25, 1011, DB
AL, 94, 2022102100,315N,  372W,  30, 1011, DB
AL, 94, 2022102106,306N,  378W,  30, 1011, DB
AL, 94, 2022102112,299N,  394W,  35, 1011, LO
AL, 94, 2022102118,293N,  411W,  35, 1011, LO
AL, 94, 2022102200,286N,  428W,  35, 1011, LO
AL, 94, 2022102206,284N,  442W,  35, 1012, LO
AL, 94, 2022102212,283N,  456W,  30, 1013, LO
AL, 94, 2022102218,287N,  470W,  30, 1014, DB
AL, 94, 2022102300,291N,  488W,  30, 1015, DB
AL, 94, 2022102306,300N,  506W,  30, 1015, DB
AL, 94, 2022102312,307N,  526W,  30, 1016, DB
AL, 94, 2022102318,313N,  547W,  30, 1015, DB
AL, 94, 2022102400,315N,  572W,  30, 1015, DB


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, October 24th 2022 à 14:10
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