2019 FEB 20 0210UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 45knots TS.
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 45knots TS.
WARNING 4/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 4 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 4.6°N 154.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
192307Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND
PGTW). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS
02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO JUST WEST OF GUAM,
WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITHOUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMWF AND EEMN
INDICATE A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS NORTHWEST TRACK FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM POLEWARD, AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. TS 02W IS
FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 4 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:
Location: 4.6°N 154.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
192307Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND
PGTW). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS
02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO JUST WEST OF GUAM,
WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITHOUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMWF AND EEMN
INDICATE A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS NORTHWEST TRACK FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM POLEWARD, AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. TS 02W IS
FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Click to animate the image.
