03UTC: South Indian: VERONICA(21S) category 4 US, may reach category 5 within 12 hours


WARNING 6/JTWC


0130UTC
0130UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 21, 2019:

Location: 16.4°S 117.7°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt (280km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 930 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE
(MSI) IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT 20NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE MAY BE WOBBLING AND THE
SYSTEM TOOK AN UN-FORECASTED SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK DIRECTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 202258Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 210010Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 122 KNOTS.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS LOCATED IN AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) ALONG
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RESUME A SOUTHWEST TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36,
AFTER WHICH IT WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STEERING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE TRANSITS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS FOLLOWED BY
LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 45 KNOTS BY TAU
120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36 MODEL SOLUTIONS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96
WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL FORECASTS AND THE UN-
FORECASTED SOUTHWARD TURN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WARNING 6/JTWC
WARNING 6/JTWC

0207UTC
0207UTC

2259UTC
2259UTC

2234UTC
2234UTC


2234UTC
2234UTC

00UTC
00UTC


18UTC
18UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 141KT AT +18H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 141KT AT +18H

GFS AT 18UTC: 113KT AT +60H
GFS AT 18UTC: 113KT AT +60H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 21 Mars 2019 à 06:29