ex TS Matmo(23W), TC Kyarr(04A), TC Maha(05A) and Invest 99W updates



TC 04A & TC 05A
TC 04A & TC 05A
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

ex TS MATMO(23W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 31, 2019:

Location: 13.7°N 104.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb


INVEST 99W
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 31, 2019:

Location: 7.3°N 165.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 310600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS. A
310345Z F-15 SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 302202Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE VERY WEAK, BROAD LLC SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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NORTH INDIAN

TC KYARR(04A)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 31, 2019:

Location: 17.4°N 59.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 59.5E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (30-35
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, IF NOT
SOONER. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 04A WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


TC MAHA(05A)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 13.0°N 72.7°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 72.5E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 778
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS SOME SHALLOW BANDING JUST
TO THE EAST OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION USING A COMBINATION OF THE AMSI AND A 311130Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH PRESENTS A SOMEWHAT CONFUSING
PATTERN BUT SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KTS FALLS BETWEEN PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS). MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION. TC
05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND CAUSE THE
TRACK TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE TRACK SHIFT, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 96, THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE TC 05A OVER UPWELLED, COOLER
WATERS FROM TC 04A AND SST SHOULD DECREASE TO 26-27 CELSIUS. THIS
UPWELLING SHOULD SERVE TO REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TRACK FORECAST BUT SPREAD IS
350 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 


TC 04A: WEAKENING. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KTS AFTER 24H
TC 04A: WEAKENING. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KTS AFTER 24H

TC 05A: INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE STEADILY AFTER 24H
TC 05A: INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE STEADILY AFTER 24H

TC 04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TC 05A: HWRF: 94KTS AT +114H
TC 05A: HWRF: 94KTS AT +114H

INVEST 99W: GFS ENSEMBLE
INVEST 99W: GFS ENSEMBLE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 31 Octobre 2019 à 18:01