ex Super Typhoon WUTIP(02W): an "historic event" , final warning


I will never forget it


REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 134.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 150NM TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 281229Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 20 KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND A
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS). STRONG (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DRY, COLD
AIR, AND WESTERLIES ALOFT HAVE CAUSED TD 02W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 30 HOURS TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD. CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THE LLCC TO BECOME
MORE DISORGANIZED AND DISINTEGRATE ENTIRELY. TD 02W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
TD 02W. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

JMV FILE/JTWC
0219021806  42N1634E  20
0219021812  42N1621E  20
0219021818  42N1609E  20
0219021900  43N1596E  20
0219021906  44N1583E  25
0219021912  44N1570E  30
0219021918  45N1557E  35
0219022000  47N1546E  45
0219022006  50N1536E  50
0219022012  53N1525E  55
0219022018  57N1515E  60
0219022100  62N1505E  65
0219022106  67N1497E  75
0219022112  71N1489E  85
0219022118  76N1481E  90
0219022200  83N1472E  95
0219022206  91N1462E 100
0219022212  98N1451E 105
0219022218 102N1441E 105
0219022300 107N1437E 110
0219022306 114N1432E 115
0219022312 120N1428E 135
0219022318 124N1424E 135
0219022400 127N1421E 125
0219022406 129N1417E 115
0219022412 131N1412E 105
0219022418 131N1407E 110
0219022500 134N1404E 120
0219022506 138N1402E 140
0219022512 142N1401E 130
0219022518 146N1399E 130
0219022600 149N1399E 120
0219022606 152N1399E 115
0219022612 154N1400E  95
0219022618 155N1401E  95
0219022700 157N1401E  90
0219022706 162N1399E  80
0219022712 164N1391E  60
0219022718 167N1377E  40
0219022800 171N1367E  35
0219022806 176N1356E  30
0219022812 182N1349E  25
0219022818 186N1347E  20
NNNN

ex Super Typhoon WUTIP(02W): an "historic event" , final warning

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 1 Mars 2019 à 09:29