Western Australia: Invest 92S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



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INVEST 92S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 10, 2020:
Location: 12.6°S 130.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 131.9E TO 12.6S 124.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 130.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 47
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A 100020Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY STRONG AT 20-25 KTS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN PHASE WITH
STORM MOTION AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE. COMBINED WITH
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE OVERALL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
NNNN

TCFA


MODELS AGREE WELL ON TRACK AND SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION


 

10/0230UTC

JTWC
JTWC


01/10 06UTC

JTWC
JTWC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 10 Janvier 2020 à 10:32