Typhoon Neoguri(21W) weakening rapidly. Typhoon Bualoi(22W) intensifying



TY 21W & TY 22W
TY 21W & TY 22W
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY  NEOGURI(21W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 20, 2019:

Location: 25.6°N 130.1°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 017//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 21W IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA, THEREFORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) HAS COMMENCED. THE
20/12Z NAZE SOUNDING (47909) INDICATES A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WITH 65 KNOTS AT 300-200MB, WHICH IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG (40-50
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS
REVEALED IN RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE
DESPITE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE RADAR IMAGERY AND CORRESPONDING RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 20/0949Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 66 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH A 20/0848Z SMAP ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE). AS
REVEALED IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, TY 21W CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE EAST OF KADENA AB, WHICH
IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF ONLY 5-15 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY (> 65 KNOTS) BY TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE JET AND RAPIDLY COMPLETES ETT.
CONSEQUENTLY, RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN DIVERGES WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE CENTER BROADENS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE LOW,  
THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS AS A COURTESY TO
ASSETS IN JAPAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED ERRATIC WITH
SEVERAL MODELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TRACKING THE SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF
MODEL FIELDS, WHICH MAINTAIN A DISTINCT BUT BROAD CENTER THROUGH TAU
72. NAVGEM AND GFS BOTH LOSE THE CENTER RESULTING IN A SHARP
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK CHANGE AFTER TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 36.//
NNNN
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TY BUALOI(22W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 20, 2019:
Location: 12.7°N 149.8°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 201114Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 22W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 THEN IT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 AND 125NM AT
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH AN INTENSITY
NEAR 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU
48 TO TAU 72. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE
PRESENCE OF THE 24-HOUR AND 36-HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS,
WHICH TRIGGER WHEN CONDITIONS ARE PRIME.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
IMPROVE. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MAINLAND JAPAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WESTERLY JET
OVER HONSHU IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//
NNNN
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 97A
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 20, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 64.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

21W: WEAKENING RAPIDLY
21W: WEAKENING RAPIDLY

21W: 20/15UTC 3 HOUR POSITION UPDATE
21W: 20/15UTC 3 HOUR POSITION UPDATE

22W: FORECAST TO PEAK AT 115KNOTS(CAT 4 US) IN 48H
22W: FORECAST TO PEAK AT 115KNOTS(CAT 4 US) IN 48H

21W: 20/1552UTC
21W: 20/1552UTC

22W: 20/16UTC
22W: 20/16UTC

21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 20 Octobre 2019 à 20:21