Typhoon Bualoi(22W) becoming extratropical. Cyclone 04A likely to intensify next 3 days



TY 22W AND TC 04A
TY 22W AND TC 04A
Météo974

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY BUALOI(22W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 25, 2019:
Location: 32.0°N 146.0°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 963 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING
CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 242123Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC THAT IS NOW OBSCURED BY CONVECTION, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5
(77 KTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 242123Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
70 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY
STRONG LEVELS (50-70 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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NORTH INDIAN

TC 04A
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 25, 2019:

Location: 15.7°N 71.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 71.3E.
25OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS STEADILY DEVELOPING CONVECTION RESULTING IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST LAYER THAT OBSCURES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 242034Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE THAT
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30 C) PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. INITIALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THOUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24. FOLLOWING TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SLIGHTLY TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE DEPICTS TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AS
NAVGEM, THE UK MET MODEL, AND GALWEM TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN INDIA. CONVERSELY, THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MAINTAIN A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK.
FURTHERMORE, THE MAJORITY OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THOSE THAT DO RECURVE NORTHWARD DO SO AFTER TAU
120, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW EXTREME OUTLIERS. THERE IS CURRENTLY
A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SET UP NORTH OF THE ARABIAN SEA, WHICH MAKES THE
FIRST SCENARIO MORE UNREALISTIC THAN THE TRACK DEPICTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE EXTREME
DIVERGENCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
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22W BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
22W BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

04A MAY REACH CATEGORY 3 US IN 72H
04A MAY REACH CATEGORY 3 US IN 72H

22W: 25/00UTC
22W: 25/00UTC

04A: 25/0217UTC
04A: 25/0217UTC

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

04A: HWRF: 107KT AT +96H
04A: HWRF: 107KT AT +96H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 25 Octobre 2019 à 07:58