The Indian Ocean is active: 91B and 92S may develop within the next few days


Both areas are given Medium chances by the JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
INVEST 91B
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 25, 2019:

Location: 2.4°N 90.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
 AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.4N
90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250716Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION AND BANDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW AND
DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 92S
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 25, 2019:

Location: 12.5°S 94.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 93.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 167
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241501Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A SMALL TONGUE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) SURROUNDED BY HIGHER (15-30 KNOT) VWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH,
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29
CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND A POSSIBLE MERGER
OR DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH 25S AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GUIDANCE FOR 91B
GUIDANCE FOR 91B

GUIDANCE FOR 92S
GUIDANCE FOR 92S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 25 Avril 2019 à 15:52