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TS WIPHA(08W) & TS FRANCISCO(09W) whereas Invest 94W is upgraded to MEDIUM


08W: WARNING 10/JTWC. 09W: WARNING 2/JTWC


INVEST 94W IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
INVEST 94W IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD WIPHA(08W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:

Location: 21.2°N 109.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE AND RAGGED SYSTEM WITH
SOME INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AS INDICATED BY OVERSHOOTING TOPS EVIDENT
IN THE EARLY MORNING MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. WHILE NOT EVIDENT IN THE
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, LAND BASED RADAR COMPOSITES FROM CHINA
INDICATE A VERY WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, JUST OFFSHORE BEHAI, CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP AND NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM BEHAI. A 012318Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE LENDS SUPPORT TO
THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
WATER TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VWS AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A WEAK POINT SOURCE APPEARS TO
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TOP OF TS 08W, WHICH IS PROVIDING SOME
ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR HONG KONG. SSTS IN THE AREA OF 30-31
DEGREES CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER REEMERGING
INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY,
WITH THE SYSTEM NOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE MOVING THROUGH A
GENERALLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR OVER EAST-CENTRAL
CHINA AND NER CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN STRAIT OF MALACCA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. WHILE THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED, DUE TO
THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE FORECAST
EXTENDED TO TAU 72.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 08W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 24, AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN CHINA,
ALLOWING TS 08W TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY WHILE MAINTAINING AND OVERALL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, PARALLEL TO THE VIETNAMESE
COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI
NEAR TAU 60. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
REMAINS OVER VERY WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MAINTAINS ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24 WITH RELATIVELY
LOW VWS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AS THE OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS DIFFLUENT AND VWS INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TS 08W, WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH SOONER AND CLOSER TO
HANOI, WHILE THE AFUM AND NAVGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WATER AND
FURTHER SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST SOUTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS MUCH SLOWER IN LIGHT OF THE NEAR-
TERM QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, LEADING TO A LONGER PERIOD OVER WATER
IN WHICH THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:
Location: 20.0°N 152.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION EAST OF
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP AND A 012302Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, BUT WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 35 KNOTS, NUDGED HIGHER THAN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) IN
LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, WHICH INDICATED A BROAD
SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEARBY TUTT CELL, BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY WARM (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 09W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALLOWING FOR ONLY LIMITED, SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36
HOWEVER, THE VWS GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IMPROVES AS THE TUTT CELL AND STR TO THE NORTH INTERACT TO PRODUCE
DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION
TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.    
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, GENERALLY TOWARDS KYUSHU,
JAPAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH
DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE TUTT
CELL THAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE BROAD
STR TO THE WEST, WARM SSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, AND
LOW TO MODERATE VWS. THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE FORECAST IS 85 KNOTS
BUT A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BETWEEN TAUS 96
AND 120 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE KYUSHU COAST. AFTER LANDFALL,
TERRAIN INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE
TO ERODE TS 09W TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120 TO THE WEST OF SASEBO.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS BECOMES EVIDENT BY TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
ALL MODELS, TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, WITH ECMWF
450NM TOO DISTANT, TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST OF CHEJU DO AND INTO THE
YELLOW SEA. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND OVERALL STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 94W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:
Location: 13.9°N 132.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 020000
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
793 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012138Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC WITH DISPLACED,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS (20-30 KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING 94W TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

WIPHA(08W): WARNING 10. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.
WIPHA(08W): WARNING 10. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.


FRANCISCO(09W): WARNING 2. PEAK INTENSITY OF 85KNOTS FORECAST IN 96HOURS.
FRANCISCO(09W): WARNING 2. PEAK INTENSITY OF 85KNOTS FORECAST IN 96HOURS.


WIPHA(08W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
WIPHA(08W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

02/00UTC
02/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 2 Août 2019 à 08:48