TS Matmo(23W) making landfall. TC Kyarr(04A) and TC 05A updates



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS MATMO(23W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 13.5°N 110.1°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301055Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE TCB
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES OF 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR,
MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 6 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 55 KNOTS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL,
RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VIETNAM.//
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NORTH INDIAN

TC KYARR(04A)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 18.9°N 61.3°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 61.1E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 301145Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS
A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A
IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA AND IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND POTENTIALLY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04A SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER SOMALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z,
310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE)
WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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TC 05A
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 9.9°N 45.0°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 73.7E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30KTS) FROM DEMS, T2.5 (35KTS) FROM KNES, AND T3.0 (45KTS) FROM PGTW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS
AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.7. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TC 05A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) THAT ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK WILL TURN WESTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SECOND STR, CENTERED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND NAVGEM MODELS WHICH INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN INDIA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY BUT IS LESS LIKELY THAN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05A MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES WHILE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES. BASED ON THE DISCUSSED VARIATIONS IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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TS 23W, TC 04A & TC 05A
TS 23W, TC 04A & TC 05A


TS 23W: MAKING LANDFALL AS A 55KTS CYCLONE
TS 23W: MAKING LANDFALL AS A 55KTS CYCLONE

TC 04A: GRADUALLY APPROACHING SOCOTRA ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING
TC 04A: GRADUALLY APPROACHING SOCOTRA ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING


TS 23W: CLICK TO ANIMATE
TS 23W: CLICK TO ANIMATE


TC 05A: GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED UP TO MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY IN 48H
TC 05A: GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED UP TO MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY IN 48H

23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

23W: HWRF: 49KTS
23W: HWRF: 49KTS

04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

04A: HWRF: 98KTS AT +12H
04A: HWRF: 98KTS AT +12H

05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 96KTS AT +108H
05A: HWRF: 96KTS AT +108H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 30 Octobre 2019 à 17:28