TS Kammuri(29W), TC Rita(01P) and Invest 95W: updates at 26/09UTC



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M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS KAMMURI (29W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 26, 2019:
Location: 11.0°N 147.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260647Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35KTS REFLECTS
THE CONTINUED, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND IS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (PGTW/35KTS)
AND 2.0 (RJTD/30KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 29W WILL CONTINUE ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR THROUGH
TAU 24, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
AFTERWARD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE 29W TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW VWS, COUPLED
WITH WARM SST WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT BEGINS THIS POLEWARD TRACK, EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING TO 90KTS BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A
SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES POLEWARD. THE LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 26, 2019:

Location: 4.7°N 173.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

TC RITA ( 01P)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 26, 2019:
Location: 14.1°S 169.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 169.5E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC RITA IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
SHALLOW, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING IN A 260221Z AMSR2 36GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 2.5/35KTS (PGTW) AND 3.0/45KTS (KNES). AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY
STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01P IS ENTERING
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30KTS) BY TAU 48, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WIDELY SPREAD. NAVGEM IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER
OFFERING AN UNREALISTIC EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

29W: EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 5 DAYS
29W: EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 5 DAYS

29W: 26/06UTC
29W: 26/06UTC

01P: 26/06UTC
01P: 26/06UTC


29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

29W: HWRF: 119KTS AT +114H
29W: HWRF: 119KTS AT +114H

01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

01P: HWRF: 61KTS AT +0H
01P: HWRF: 61KTS AT +0H

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Novembre 2019 à 14:16