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TS DANAS(06W) peak intensity within 12hours. Dissipation forecast over South Korea after 48hours


WARNING 12/JTWC


WARNING 12/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12HOURS. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS IN 48HOURS.
WARNING 12/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12HOURS. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS IN 48HOURS.
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS DANAS(06W)
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 19, 2019:

Location: 28.9°N 124.0°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 190000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE EASTERN CONVECTION IS FORMING A LARGE FEEDER
BAND THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND INTO TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 91W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED THE UPPER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD BASED ON THE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH AN
AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 06W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTH KOREA WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND RESULTING IN FULL
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72 OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF OVER 300NM BY
TAU 72. THE PRINCIPLE EASTERN OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND AFUM
MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36, AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

19/0211UTC
19/0211UTC

 


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 19 Juillet 2019 à 08:18