TS 15W(BOLAVEN) forecast to reach Super Typhoon Intensity by 72H//14W(KOINU) rapidly degrading//TS 15E(LIDIA)//TS 16E(MAX)//0915utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 14W(KOINU) AND TS 15W(BOLAVEN).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ERODED AND FEEDER BANDS UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED EXTRAPOLATION OF A RAGGED REMNANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATI0N ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS KOINU WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, EXACERBATED BY LANDFALL INTO LEIZHOU PENINSULA THEN FINALLY INTO HAINAN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD AND ERRATIC, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDS INTERSECTING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091114Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND CORROBORATED BY A DOPPLER RADAR FIX FROM NWS WFO GUAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A RECENT SAR PASS AND SUPPORTED BY AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL 6-HR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL COME TO WITHIN 62NM OF ANDERSEN AFB AROUND 100700Z AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL RECEDE EASTWARD, ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 135NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 165NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.