Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    148.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  15.2  17.8  18.0  18.7  14.0  15.5  18.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  91.0  90.0 108.0  81.0  70.0  62.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  60.0  48.0  42.0  90.0 121.0 107.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       17.6%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       46.8%       62.5%       54.7%
 30kt / 24h       30.7%       51.3%       41.0%
 35kt / 24h       16.5%       51.3%       33.9%
 40kt / 24h       16.5%       50.4%       33.4%
 45kt / 36h       44.2%       52.0%       48.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.2%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       50.8%       51.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       23.8%       24.3%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       43.6%       52.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP152023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    148.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  15.2  17.8  18.0  18.7  14.0  15.5  18.4  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%