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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TS 06W(KHANUN). 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05W(DOKSURI) WERE ENDED AT 28/0900UTC AND 290530UTC RESPECTIVELY .
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 06W(KHANUN). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS: +10 KNOTS/24H.
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 157N1337E 40
0623072906 163N1331E 45
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 157N1337E 40
0623072906 163N1331E 45
WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 29/0900UTC.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A DEFINED CENTROID. MSI ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID AND IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 290455Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 290330Z BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALIGNING VERY WELL WITH THE CENTROID LOCATION. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA, THE 290000Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED 65NM SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. A PREVIOUS 282117Z SMAP IMAGE DEPICTED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-50 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK WEST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 34N 143E. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES THE EFFECTS OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND NORTHERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE NW QUADRANT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85KT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD RANGING FROM 117NM AT TAU 48 TO 135NM AT TAU 60. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (AEMN), MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. GFS AND AEMN INDICATE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA WITH A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE EASTERN CHINA COAST BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INLAND TO A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE 290000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (80 PERCENT) OF A WNW TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A POLEWARD TRACK. THE 290000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS.
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HWRF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure AT 29/00UTC: 89 KNOTS AT +90H.
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RIPA Forecast AND RIPA STORM TABLE ATTACHED BELOW
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Experimental 34-kt Wind Speed Probabilities
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: INVEST 96L. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 29/0600UTC.
Model Diagnostic Plot
Intensity Guidance
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF STY 05W(DOKSURI). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 130 KNOTS/CAT 4 US/SUPER TYPHOON.
0523071700 71N1362E 20
0523071706 73N1361E 20
0523071712 75N1360E 20
0523071718 77N1359E 20
0523071800 80N1357E 20
0523071806 81N1352E 20
0523071812 80N1347E 20
0523071818 79N1341E 20
0523071900 80N1333E 20
0523071906 86N1328E 20
0523071912 93N1322E 20
0523071918 102N1315E 20
0523072000 115N1318E 20
0523072006 124N1328E 20
0523072012 129N1335E 20
0523072018 137N1333E 20
0523072100 139N1328E 20
0523072106 141N1322E 20
0523072112 143N1318E 30
0523072118 144N1315E 30
0523072200 144N1310E 35
0523072206 144N1306E 35
0523072212 146N1301E 40
0523072218 148N1295E 45
0523072300 148N1290E 55
0523072306 149N1284E 65
0523072312 151N1277E 80
0523072318 152N1270E 90
0523072400 153N1266E 100
0523072406 157N1263E 115
0523072412 165N1258E 120
0523072418 170N1251E 130
0523072500 177N1246E 130
0523072506 184N1237E 125
0523072512 188N1227E 120
0523072518 188N1216E 115
0523072600 189N1213E 105
0523072606 193N1210E 100
0523072612 196N1206E 90
0523072618 200N1201E 85
0523072700 208N1198E 80
0523072703 208N1193E 80
0523072706 211N1193E 90
0523072712 218N1192E 105
0523072718 228N1190E 100
0523072800 240N1187E 100
0523072806 257N1184E 75
0523072812 274N1179E 55
0523072818 293N1173E 45
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