Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  17.1  15.4  13.9  20.4  17.2  17.5  15.1  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  92.0  86.0  89.0  54.0  48.0  72.0  37.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0 119.0 128.0 127.0  75.0  53.0   1.0  22.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   8.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%       12.2%       13.4%
 25kt / 24h       62.1%       67.8%       65.0%
 30kt / 24h       40.8%       48.4%       44.6%
 35kt / 24h       28.3%       48.4%       38.3%
 40kt / 24h       12.4%       48.4%       30.4%
 45kt / 36h       50.4%       65.9%       58.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       40.9%       20.5%
 55kt / 48h       50.9%       50.0%       50.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       36.1%       30.5%
 65kt / 72h       60.5%       51.4%       56.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP062023 230729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  17.1  15.4  13.9  20.4  17.2  17.5  15.1  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   8.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%