meteo





TD Peipah(17W): weak and close to dissipation. 95W: low chances of development next 24h



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD Peipah(17W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 16, 2019:

Location: 23.9°N 143.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 28
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEGRADED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, WHICH IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
A 152335Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5
(25 KTS). DESPITE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE HIGH (40-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT PLACE TD 17W IN AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DISSIPATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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INVEST 95W

As of 06:00 UTC Sep 16, 2019:

Location: 22.2°N 130.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.6N 135.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD INDISTINCT CIRCULATION LOCATED WITHIN A MONSOON
GYRE WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
160118Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH AN
AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. INVEST 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (25 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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INVEST 98W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 16, 2019:

Location: 34.3°N 140.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
30.3N 142.6E, IS EXTRATROPICAL AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.


16/06UTC: 17W
16/06UTC: 17W

16/0540UTC: 17W
16/0540UTC: 17W

17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

16/05UTC
16/05UTC


16/00UTC
16/00UTC

16/00UTC
16/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 16 Septembre 2019 à 13:43