TC Matmo-Bulbul category 1 intensifying over the Bay of Bengal



FORECAST LANDFALL AFTER 36H
FORECAST LANDFALL AFTER 36H
Météo974

M974World

NORTH INDIAN

TC MATMO/BULBUL(23W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 08, 2019:

Location: 16.9°N 87.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 87.5E.
08NOV19. TYPHOON 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 072324Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM KNES AND DEMS AS WELL AS A
080015Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.9 (63 KTS), AND IS
BELOW T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (MITIGATED BY STORM MOTION IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL
(EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP), AND VERY WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL CAUSE THE STR TO ERODE, ALLOWING 23W TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD
THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA
AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER THEN DRAG INLAND INTO
THE BANGLADESHI INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 72
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE INDIAN PENINSULA, BLOWING THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BACK SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
PICKED UP IN THE PASSING WESTERLIES, DECAPITATING THE SYSTEM. THE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS 23W
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND LANDFALL, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, IN THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
THE LOW LYING, MARSHY TERRAIN MAY ENABLE THE CIRCULATION TO SURVIVE
FURTHER INLAND THAN EXPECTED, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY THEN STEER THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, GFS, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND
THE UKMET ENSEMBLE REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TURN TO THE
SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

PEAK INTENSITY AS A CATEGORY 2 FORECAST IN APPROX 24H
PEAK INTENSITY AS A CATEGORY 2 FORECAST IN APPROX 24H

CLICK TO ANIMATE
CLICK TO ANIMATE


08/0106UTC
08/0106UTC

08/0051UTC
08/0051UTC

23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 96KTS AT +42H
HWRF: 96KTS AT +42H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 8 Novembre 2019 à 06:47