TC Maha(05A) forecast to intensify next 72h. Invest 99W update



TC 05A: FORECAST TO INTENSIFY NEXT 72H
TC 05A: FORECAST TO INTENSIFY NEXT 72H
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

ex TS MATMO(23W)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 14.2°N 98.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb


INVEST 99W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 9.6°N 160.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb


INVEST 90W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 9.7°N 125.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 16.0°N 69.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 68.8E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL MEDIUM-SIZED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE MAIN RAIN BAND FEEDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION, INTENSITY, AND WIND-RADIUS ARE PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011713Z 25-KM RESOLUTION DIRECT
ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM
(>30C) SST OFFSET BY LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GREATLY WEAKEN
THE STR AND CAUSE TC 05A TO DEFLECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 70KTS
BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS
BY TAU 72 AS TC MAHA ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE GRADUAL DECAY DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 120. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING TO OVER 430NM AROUND TAU 72. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM, OFFERING THE MOST WESTWARD SOLUTION. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

ex TC KYARR(04A)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 14.3°N 56.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb


05A: 01/1713UTC
05A: 01/1713UTC


05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 114KTS AT +66H
05A: HWRF: 114KTS AT +66H

INVEST 99W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 99W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

99W: HWRF: 122KTS AT +102H
99W: HWRF: 122KTS AT +102H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Novembre 2019 à 01:00