TC 22S(HEROLD): still assessed as a 40knots cyclone at 19/06UTC



TC 22S. 0915UTC ANIMATION

CIRA
CIRA
TC 22S(HEROLD) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 19, 2020:
Location: 25.4°S 71.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 71.5E.
19MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
827 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A TIMELY BULLSEYE 190501Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS. SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES, A 190545Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. SYSTEM DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 24. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. NAVGEM, AN OUTLIER, TRACKS TC 22S ALONG A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD SOLUTION AT A HIGHER TRACK SPEED FROM THE CURRENT
POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 12, THE GALWEM SOLUTION DIVERGES
FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO PURSUE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THUS,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//
NNNN

TC 22S: WARNING 13: INTENSITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 35KTS WITHIN 12/24H

JTWC
JTWC

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

CIRA
CIRA


19/0501UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC


19/0110UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC

 

19/0049UTC: SMAP: 10MN WINDS: 39KTS

NASA
NASA

 

19/0530UTC

JTWC
JTWC

19/00UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 19 Mars 2020 à 13:18

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