TC 22S(HEROLD): CAT 1 US and intensifying, tracking almost over Tromelin island



TC 22S. 08UTC ANIMATION: VISIBLE+RR

CIRA
CIRA
TC 22S(HEROLD) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 16, 2020:
Location: 15.7°S 54.2°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 54.9E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WARMING CLOUD TOPS
OBSERVED IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TC 22S IS TRYING
TO FORM A NEW EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS DEVELOPING EYE AND SUPPORTED BY A TIMELY
160601Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS. OF NOTE, TC 22S FORMED AN EYE
SHORTLY AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 22S HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SST WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TC 22S FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND TAU 48 AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. STT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
LATEST RUN, WITH ONLY 100 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72. NOTABLY,
THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK SPEED FOR THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE OTHER
MODELS. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

 

TC 22S: WARNING 7: FORECAST TO REACH 90KTS ( CAT 2 US) WITHIN 12H.

JTWC
JTWC

TC 22S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

CIRA
CIRA


TC 22S: 16/0213UTC: 56KTS(10MINUTES).

NASA
NASA


16/0315UTC


16/03 00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 16 Mars 2020 à 13:28