TC 21S, Invest 96P and Invest 91S: updates at 12/06UTC



TC 21S: 12/06UTC POSITION

TC 21S  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 12, 2020:
Location: 19.9°S 115.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

TPXS10 PGTW 120629
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTY-ONE)
B. 12/0600Z
C. 19.88S
D. 115.00E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
JMV FILE
2120030818 105S1131E  15
2120030900 106S1132E  15
2120030906 108S1134E  15
2120030912 112S1138E  20
2120030918 117S1147E  20
2120031000 123S1155E  20
2120031006 130S1162E  20
2120031012 139S1168E  30
2120031018 147S1170E  30
2120031100 155S1170E  30
2120031106 164S1169E  35
2120031112 176S1166E  35
2120031118 184S1159E  35
2120031200 189S1152E  30
2120031206 198S1150E  30
NNNN


INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 12, 2020:
Location: 14.7°S 147.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

TPPS10 PGTW 120625
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96P (NE OF AUSTRALIA)
B. 12/0550Z
C. 14.35S
D. 147.75E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 120342Z AMSR2 GCOM GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITHOUT A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING LIES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LLC. A
112350Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS 30 TO 35 KNOT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
RUNNING ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE VERY ELONGATED, NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED LLC. 96P IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD
WHILE REMAINING BROAD FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING AND TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 111500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.


INVEST 91S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 12, 2020:
Location: 14.0°S 53.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

TXXS21 KNES 120603
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  12/0530Z
C.  13.2S
D.  51.9E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...FISHER


TC 21S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96P: 12/06UTC POSITION


 

INVEST 96P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 91S: 12/06 POSITION


INVEST 91S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


12/0545UTC


12/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 12 Mars 2020 à 13:26

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