TC 19P(ESTHER): moving inland over northern Australia. TC 20S(FERDINAND): intensifying



ANIMATION. 04UTC. TC 19P & TC 20S

TC 19P(ESTHER) SOUTH PACIFIC/GULF OF CARPENTARIA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 24, 2020:

Location: 16.8°S 137.5°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
TPPS13 PGTW 240321
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 16.58S
D. 137.95E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2123Z  16.47S  138.65E  SSMS
 RHOADES
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 137.9E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC NEAR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 232350Z METOP-B
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTING THE LLCC NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH A LARGE
SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW/ABRF), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 19P IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. AFTER THAT, IT WILL TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK
WHICH IT WILL FOLLOW AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA,
STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU
120, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK OVER WATER AND REGENERATE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

TC 20S(FERDINAND) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 24, 2020:
Location: 14.0°S 118.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
TPXS10 PGTW 240319
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 14.12S
D. 118.23E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2220Z  13.77S  118.38E  WIND
   23/2304Z  13.85S  118.23E  SSMS
 RHOADES
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 118.0E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
333 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232304Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 20S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TC
20S IS A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH MAY UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KTS AROUND TAU 36 AND
THEN BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF A TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH CAUSES THE STR
PATTERN TO SHIFT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
PLACES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN


TC 18P(WASI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 24, 2020:

Location: 18.5°S 170.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb


TC 17P(VICKY) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 24, 2020:

Location: 23.4°S 170.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

TPPS11 PGTW 231518
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY)
B. 23/1450Z
C. 22.89S
D. 169.69W
E. FIVE/GOES17
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

 

TC 19P. WARNING 3.


TC 20S: WARNING 2.


 

TC 19P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 20S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 19P: 23/2350UTC


TC 20S: 24/0017UTC


23/2030UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 24 Février 2020 à 09:23