TC 16S(GABEKILE): rapid intensification. Invest 93P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. 15/21UTC



TC 16S: ANIMATION. CLICK IF NECESSARY.

CIRA/US
CIRA/US
TC 16S(GABEKILE)  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:
Location: 17.5°S 74.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt  ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb

TPXS11 PGTW 152124
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 15/2045Z
C. 17.97S
D. 74.42E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELD A 4.0 AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO 4.5. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS OF 1.0 T-NUMBER CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

OVERLAND TC 13S(FRANCISCO) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:

Location: 20.0°S 48.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

STC 15P(UESI)  SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:
Location: 40.6°S 161.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

TPPS10 PGTW 152145
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI)
B. 15/2100Z
C. 43.53S
D. 163.15E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. XT2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. WELL ORGANIZED LLCC
EXTENDING TO MID-LEVELS WITH NO CONVECTION AND FORWARD SPEED OF
22 KTS YIELDS XT 2.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

INVEST 93P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:

Location: 12.3°S 177.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 151700 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
335 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 174.2E TO 13.7S 174.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 175.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 175.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY
692 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 151355Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN
EXTREMELY LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT PERSISTENT,
CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS THE
RESULT OF A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGING WINDS FROM
THE MONSOON TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO SAMOA), THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SOUTH OF FIJI), AND INTERACTING WITH
WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EQUATOR. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM. 93P
EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL AGREE 93P WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CONVERGENT
PERIPHERY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVERGENT LINE WILL APPROACH
AND IMPACT AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161700Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION OF
INVEST 93P IN PARA 2.//
NNNN

INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:

Location: 13.4°S 159.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

INVEST 95S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 15, 2020:

Location: 16.1°S 86.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

TC 16S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 93P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 13S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 

STC 15P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 16S AT 15/2035UTC. MODIS/AQUA.


02/15 1715UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 16 Février 2020 à 04:17