TC 14S(DAMIEN) now CAT 1 US, intensifying and bearing down on Karratha/Western Australia



ANIMATION: 08UTC. TC 14S INTENSIFYING AND BEARING DOWN ON KARRATHA/WESTERN AUSTRALIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY

TC 14S(DAMIEN) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 07, 2020:

Location: 18.1°S 117.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 116.9E.
07FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH AN APPROXIMATELY
100 NM CIRRUS SHIELD. THE MSI ALSO INDICATES AN EYE MAY BE ON THE CUSP
OF FORMING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED
USING A COMBINATION OF RADAR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE MSI, AND A
070533Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE REVEALED AN
EYEWALL SURROUNDING APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
FAVORABLE. TC 14S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS THE STR SHIFTS AND REORIENTS TO THE EAST,
THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE TURNING POLEWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, TC 14S
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AND CONTINUE INLAND
UNTIL DISSIPATING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85 KTS IS EXPECTED. WITH
117 NM OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z.//
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TC 14S: WARNING 6: FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KARRATHA SHORTLY AFTER 24H


TC 14S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


02/07 09UTC

BOM
BOM
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 8 Février 2020 à 13:21