TC 08S(CHENESO) estimated peak intensity was 85knots/CAT 2 US//Invest 90B//Invest 94S//Invest 95S// 3003utc, 06utc update

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 08S(CHENESO) AND INVEST 90B.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A RELATIVELY SMALL MASS OF FLARING CONVECTION. TC CHENESO HAS SUCCUMBED TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND HAS LOST ALL SIGNS OF BEING A TROPICAL SYSTEM.

300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E. 30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A RELATIVELY SMALL MASS OF FLARING CONVECTION. TC CHENESO HAS SUCCUMBED TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND HAS LOST ALL SIGNS OF BEING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS IS NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS TC CHENESO WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 12. IN ADDITION, BY TAU 12, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE 29/18Z GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS. A PARTIAL 291917Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 40 KNOTS OF WIND WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 45 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE ASCAT-C PASS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AN 82 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF ALL AGREEABLE DATA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO SPORADIC MODEL BEHAVIOR IN CONSENSUS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL AT TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.//

RAPID INTENSIFICATION DID NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 300345Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE ONGOING MJO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE ONGOING MJO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 94.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE.