TC 07P(KIRRILY) landfall close to TONWSVILLE//TC 06S(ANGGREK) to reach CAT 3 US within 72H//TC 08S(CANDICE) intensifying//2503utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 07P. 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 06S AND ON TC 08S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY) HAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEER. THE OUTERMOST SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS MOVED OVER LAND, BRINGING REPORTS OF RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL OBSERVATION SITES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 250000Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF REPORTING 53KTS WESTERLIES AT 250100Z, 58NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BELOW

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF AUSTRALIA, 154NM SSE OF CAIRNS, NEAR TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50KTS. DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 07P HAS REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AND WILL GRADUALLY DOWNTREND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (THROUGH TAU 36).

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 07P HAS REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AND WILL GRADUALLY DOWNTREND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (THROUGH TAU 36).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) HAVING RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED, WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 242129Z AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEED IMAGE CAPTURED A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION (RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 150NM) WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SHIP OBSERVATIONS (ID EUMDE20) 150NM NORTH OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS WEST- SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 250000Z. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM POINTE CANON, 280NM EAST OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 250000Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCEPTIONAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT (POINT SOURCE). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN GRADUALLY TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36 AS IT EXPERIENCES THE STEERING EFFECTS OF A STR EAST OF THE LLCC. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS INTERVAL, HINDERED ONLY BY THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE. NEAR TAU 36, A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINS THROUGH TAU 72. A GRADUAL DROP IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 36 IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEAS, CROSSING THE 26 C ISOTHERM AROUND 260000Z (TAU 48). COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE TC 08S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL RISE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, SOME MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS (COAMPS-TC AND GFS) SUGGEST AN INTENSITY DOWNTREND TO TAU 24 BEFORE SHOWING AN OVERALL RISE FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36 (INTENSIFYING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36). FINDING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 36 OF APPROXIMATELY 65 KTS, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DISSIPATING TC BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT NEARS A PROMINENT STR TO THE SOUTH.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) HAVING RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXPOSING A RAGGED EYE NEAR 241430Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED (1-3 KTS), TC ANGGREK HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY HAS ALSO CAPTURED THE TC EXPERIENCING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WITH THE EYE FEATURE WOBBLING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN METSAT EIR IMAGERY AT 241800Z, MEASURING 26NM IN DIAMETER WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7.8C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, FURTHER INTENSIFYING ALONG-TRACK AS TRACK SPEEDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND NEGATE UPWELLING OF COOLER OCEAN WATERS THAT MAY BE CURRENTLY RESTRAINING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY TURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF TC 06S. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, A VERY TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 33NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 72 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK FORECAST IS IN TRACK SPEEDS, WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS SHOWING A 263NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AT TAU 84 WITH A 60 KNOT SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND COAMPS-TC.