TC 06S named Blake, slowly intensifying and approaching Pardoo/WA



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TC 06S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 06, 2020:
Location: 15.9°S 121.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
A LARGE RAINBAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 052214Z WINDSAT 37
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SPIRAL BANDING. BECAUSE NEITHER IMAGE
SOURCE IS PARTICULARLY DEFINITIVE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. TC 06S IS TRACKING BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE THAT OCCURS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD. PRIOR TO TAU 48, TC 06S WILL MAKE LANDFALL. SHORTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
POLEWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
DESPITE FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN
INTACT OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
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WARNING 2. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 45KTS WITHIN 24H.


TRACK AND FORECAST GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 6 Janvier 2020 à 09:30