TC 06S(BLAKE) intensifying North-West of Broome(WA)



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TC 06S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 06, 2020:
Location: 16.5°S 122.2°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 122.1E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES AND 060533Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE
SENSOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND
APRF AS WELL AS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN A PARTIAL 060146Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 06S HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 06S WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL, ANTICIPATED
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 36.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL TRACK
OVER LAND, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
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WARNING 3. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 55KTS WITHIN 12H.


MICROWAVE: 06/0428UTC. CLEAR-CUT CENTER


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 6 Janvier 2020 à 13:03