TC 02S(BELNA) making landfall near Soalala/Madagascar within 12h as a Cat1/2



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TC 02S BELNA
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 09, 2019:
Location: 14.6°S 45.6°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 45.5E.
09DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 200 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. A 090514Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND WAS USED TO ESTIMATE THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BETWEEN THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 AND T5.0 (77 AND 90 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS FAVORABLE. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12, FOLLOW THE COAST UNTIL TAU 36 AND THEN TURN INLAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NOTABLY, A REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS, SHADED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SPREAD AROUND 150 NM AT TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 9 Décembre 2019 à 11:47