TC 02S(BELNA) back to Category 2 but expected to intensify, bearing down on Madagascar



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TC 02S(BELNA) back to Category 2 but expected to intensify, bearing down on Madagascar
TC 02S BELNA
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 08, 2019:
Location: 12.0°S 46.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 46.5E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
713 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A POSSIBLE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS APPARENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THIS
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 080300Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE AND A 080648Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII WERE ESTIMATED USING THE
ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.5 (77-102 KTS). FAIR EQUATORWARD
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKE FOR A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36, TC 02S
WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 ALTHOUGH A
REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY EMERGE BACK INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AROUND TAU
96. BASED ON DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//

POSSIBLE LANDFALL(SHORTLY BEFORE 36H) APPRX 120KM WEST OF MAHAJANGA AS A CAT 3


08/0301UTC


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 8 Décembre 2019 à 11:21