South Pacific: Invest 91P now Medium, expected to intensify significantly next 4 days



INVEST 91P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INVEST 91P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 07, 2020:

Location: 13.6°S 165.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070216Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 54. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
 

02/07 0515UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 8 Février 2020 à 13:55